The Brian Williams Storm Chase

Once upon a time I visited a community impacted by a tornado. Once upon a time I arrived in a community just after being hit by a tornado. Once upon a time I spotted a tornado and took video footage as it hit a community. Once upon a time I was in a community when a tornado approached. I took video footage throughout the event and posted it on YouTube. Once upon a time I was in a community when a tornado approached. As I took video footage, my life hung in the balance as twigs, boards, roofing material and glass flew everywhere. I barely escaped safely and then promptly posted my harrowing experience on YouTube

Just Because - An Essay on What Seasonal Outlooks REALLY mean.

Suppose you have a bowl full of marbles. In that bowl there are 33 blue marbles, 33 green marbles and 33 black marbles. If you randomly grab a marble from this bowl, what is the chance of grabbing a blue marble? If you said 33% chance you are correct. There are equal chances (33%) that you draw a black marble, a green marble or a blue marble out of that bowl. What if you stack the bowl with 50 blue marbles, 25 green ones and 25 black ones? Then there would be a 50% chance for a blue marble, and there would be a 50% chance for a NON-BLUE marble. So when you see a seasonal forecast outlook indicating "EQUAL CHANCES", that means any of the 3 outcomes - ABOVE, NEAR, BELOW - are equally likely. Also, if you see a seasonal forecast indicating one outcome is more likely than the other 2, such as a 40% chance for ABOVE NORMAL temperatures, keep in mind that means there is still a 60% chance the other two might occur. In this example, ABOVE NORMAL is simply more likely to occur (the blue marble) than either NEAR (the green marble) or BELOW NORMAL (the black marble). Once in a while you'll see a high confidence forecast in the 6-10 day or 8-14 day outlook for either ABOVE NORMAL or BELOW NORMAL. Again, the high chances reflect HIGH CONFIDENCE that the outcome will be WARM or COLD (for temperatures). These forecasts provide NO information regarding the magnitude of how far ABOVE or BELOW normal it might be. According to CPC's latest outlook, Maryland has EQUAL CHANCES for warm, cold or normal temperatures during Dec-Jan-Feb, and most of the state has EQUAL CHANCES for wet, dry or normal precipitation this winter except for the eastern section. The probability for above normal precip there is between 34% and 40%. Keep in mind that skill levels for these types of forecasts are rather low. So what does EQUAL CHANCES really MEAN? It means we don't really know, the signals we use are mixed, and it could go any of the 3 ways.

Snow on Jan. 25

The beagle isn't much for snow. About 1.5 inches on the ground.

It's Officially Fall

It is a great thing to finally say it IS Fall! Right on cue, we have comfortable temperatures and low humidity. Hopefully we will get some good fall color. A few cool nights would get things going.

Lawn

Would it be better to mow the lawn before tomorrow's rainfall, or wait until Sunday, after the cold front... a day where I have lots of stuff planned... or wait until MONDAY, a workday?

Snow in February 2012

It's been a crazy warm winter, but today we got treated to a fluffy snow fall. The flakes are so big, that I measured a few spots of 2.5 inches. It's really more like 1.5 or so. Anyway, a good show!

Warm!

Mid 60s today? Not exactly wintry, ya know?

Merry Christmas

Here's to a little light snow with big, fluffy flakes on Christmas Day 2010.

First Main Snow of the 2010-11 Season

I know we had light dusting the other day, but this was our first real measurable event. 1.75 inches trumps 0.25-0.50 inch every time. The commute home wasn't even all that bad. Chalk it up to the fine salt crews.

Snow on The Deck

Here's a picture of my snow-buried deck. The snow is about 26 inches deep and we have 3-4 foot drifts.

Up to My Knees in Snow

Here are a couple photos I took this morning. Storm total snow measurement: 20.5 inches

My House at 9:20 p.m. EST

Friday, February 5, 2010 will go down in history.


Here's a picture of the snow on my backyard tree.


Do you have a snow report? Leave a comment and I'll post it!

Two Snows for the Price of One

In case you haven't looked out your window, it's snowing lightly. I expect 3 inches, but don't think we'll get quite as much as Saturday (5-6 inches). Tonight's snow is just the side salad before this weekend's big snow. It appears extremely likely that Linganore will see 12 inches of snow, and we could see a repeat of what occurred back in December 2009.

Here comes the snow again...

I hope Linganorians like snow, because there's more on the way. Tomorrow evening and also likely this weekend.

Happy New Year!!

I would like to wish everyone a Happy New Year! Did you know there is still snow lying around at my house from the "Big Snow"? Well, it looks like we're going to get some snow again this Friday. Of course, I'm heading out of town for a vacation, so I won't get to enjoy it.

The winter of 2009-2010 has started out very snowy. We had a light snow back in early December, followed by a light one shortly thereafter. On December 19, we got the big one, and then last week's year-end light event.

Final Tally - 16 inches

Had fun shoveling snow this morning. Roads are pretty clear. Lots of sun to dry them out.

Snow total so far is 8 inches

This is a picture of my patio this morning. Measured several spots around the yard... 8 inches deep and snowing moderately

Even more snow????

The latest trends have led to increased snow amounts in the forecast. Nevermind 12 inches... how about 24? That could TOTALLY happen.

Winter Storm Warning

This could go down as the biggest snowfall from a single storm I have ever seen first hand. My new prediction is for 12 inches. But if the 13-17" forecast verifies, that would be my "personal best". Tune in tomorrow!

Major Snowstorm Looking Likely Saturday

It looks like all the weather ingredients are going to come together Saturday for a major snow storm here in the Lake Linganore community. Based on my latest analysis, I believe it will start to snow at about 6 a.m. Saturday, and snow all day and overnight into early Sunday morning, about 24 hours worth.

My preliminary snow total forecast is for 8 inches at my house.