Just Because - An Essay on What Seasonal Outlooks REALLY mean.

Suppose you have a bowl full of marbles. In that bowl there are 33 blue marbles, 33 green marbles and 33 black marbles. If you randomly grab a marble from this bowl, what is the chance of grabbing a blue marble? If you said 33% chance you are correct. There are equal chances (33%) that you draw a black marble, a green marble or a blue marble out of that bowl. What if you stack the bowl with 50 blue marbles, 25 green ones and 25 black ones? Then there would be a 50% chance for a blue marble, and there would be a 50% chance for a NON-BLUE marble. So when you see a seasonal forecast outlook indicating "EQUAL CHANCES", that means any of the 3 outcomes - ABOVE, NEAR, BELOW - are equally likely. Also, if you see a seasonal forecast indicating one outcome is more likely than the other 2, such as a 40% chance for ABOVE NORMAL temperatures, keep in mind that means there is still a 60% chance the other two might occur. In this example, ABOVE NORMAL is simply more likely to occur (the blue marble) than either NEAR (the green marble) or BELOW NORMAL (the black marble). Once in a while you'll see a high confidence forecast in the 6-10 day or 8-14 day outlook for either ABOVE NORMAL or BELOW NORMAL. Again, the high chances reflect HIGH CONFIDENCE that the outcome will be WARM or COLD (for temperatures). These forecasts provide NO information regarding the magnitude of how far ABOVE or BELOW normal it might be. According to CPC's latest outlook, Maryland has EQUAL CHANCES for warm, cold or normal temperatures during Dec-Jan-Feb, and most of the state has EQUAL CHANCES for wet, dry or normal precipitation this winter except for the eastern section. The probability for above normal precip there is between 34% and 40%. Keep in mind that skill levels for these types of forecasts are rather low. So what does EQUAL CHANCES really MEAN? It means we don't really know, the signals we use are mixed, and it could go any of the 3 ways.

Just What We Need...

So, it looks like it is time for another
traffic law enforcement initiative ... so watch your speed out there boys & girls.

Speed Control on Mussetter?

Alcohol may be involved, but could it have been road rage? Based on what I've seen firsthand, those who understand the recent history of this segment of road are going the speed limit. The ones who don't get it tailgate, and get fed up with going 35 when they're used to going 50.

Relaying from the FNP:
http://www.fredericknewspost.com/sections/news/display.htm?storyID=96132

Crash injures three

Monrovia -- Alcohol is suspected in a head-on collision about 5:30 p.m. Sunday in the 5200 block of Mussetter Road, according to the Frederick County Sheriff's Office.

Three men were taken to different hospitals to be treated for injuries, although none were considered life-threatening, Cpl. Mike Easterday said.

Witnesses told deputies the collision occurred as a 2000 Ford Mustang was headed north at high speed on Mussetter Road, tried to pass on a curve at a hillcrest and crossed a double yellow line, Easterday said.

The Mustang collided with a southbound 2003 Dodge Caravan head-on, deputies said.

Deputy First Class Ben Whitehouse is investigating the crash; no charges have been filed, Easterday said.

Chance C. Siros, 25, of Ijamsville, the driver of the Mustang, and his passenger, Sean M. Donahoe, 30, of Kannapolis, N.C., had to be cut out of the car, authorities said.

Siros was flown by helicopter to R Adams Cowley Shock Trauma in Baltimore. Donahoe went by ambulance to Suburban Hospital in Bethesda.

Hospital authorities could not be reached Monday for condition reports.

Steven Gerard Boie, 45, of Clarksburg, the driver of the Dodge, was taken by ambulance to Frederick Memorial Hospital.

He was released after receiving treatment, a hospital operator said Monday.

-- Kate Leckie

Snow no Snow

I cannot believe that Frederick County cancelled school the other day, and yet there was hardly any snow whatsoever. There was way more snow in Montgomery County and they had school. A delay I could see (Carroll County, good job). A complete Snow Day? What is this... Alabama???

The Bag Bill Sponsors

Below is the list of bill sponsors for the ridiculous plastic bag bill. Take note of the names.

Delegates Schuler, Barnes, Barve, Beidle, Bromwell, Cardin, DeBoy, Dumais, Gilchrist, Guzzone, Hecht, Hucker, Ivey, Krysiak, Kullen, Lafferty, Morhaim, Olszewski, Ramirez, and Walker

Hecht is the District 3A House Delegate (Frederick County).

Bill 967
House of Delegates

Don't Ban Plastic Bags!

The Maryland legislature was supposed to debate a bill today that would ban the use of plastic shopping bags. The bill would require stores to use only paper or reusable bags. Stores giving out plastic bags could be fined $100. I don't know about you, but those plastic bags ARE reusable!!!

Plastic shopping bags are perfect for bathroom trash cans and picking up dog poop. This bill never made it to a vote on the main floor last year, so here's hoping that it dies in committee again this year. And if it makes it to the main floor, I hope it is RESOUNDINGLY voted down.

Slowasmolasses

I can't stand it when people think it's their personal duty to travel 10 mph under the flow of traffic, providing an obstruction that all must navigate around and pass. UGH!

Comcast, get your act together!

It's a tragicomedy of errors as we try to settle into the new house. The chief culprit in the misery is Comcast's craptastic internet service. One week, a new modem, and still no internet connectivity. The monkeys in the various departments really need to converse with each other to resolve things like erroneous account codes. Seriously, how can you download their internet software one minute, yet not sync the modem the next?